Print this article

Uncertain Times Drive Global Gold Demand - Industry Data

Tom Burroughes

13 May 2016

Global demand for gold surged 21 per cent in the first three months of this year from the same quarter of 2015, reaching 1,290 tonnes, the second-largest quarterly figure on record, according to industry data.

The rise, according to the World Gold Council, a group representing the sector, was driven by “huge inflows into exchange traded funds”, which it said were caused by concerns about an uncertain economic and financial environment. 

While demand for instruments such as gold-linked ETFs surged, global demand for actual physical gold in the form of jewellery sank 19 per cent. Higher prices and industrial action in India, as well as a softening of the economy in China, encouraged consumers to put off purchases, the report said.

“Two major themes emerged in the first quarter of 2016. Spurred on by the uncertainty raised by negative interest rates, the investment sector was the dominant driver of gold demand, helping to push prices up 17 per cent over the course of the quarter, as ETF inflows swelled. Conversely, jewellery demand endured a difficult quarter due to a continued lack of consumer confidence in the face of a weakening Chinese economy and a 42-day strike by jewellers in India. But we believe Indian demand has simply been postponed, with buying likely to increase for Akshaya Tritiya and the wedding season,” said Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council.

Although gold prices are some way off their September 2011 peak of more than $1,900 an ounce, there remains keen debate in the wealth industry about the yellow metal’s role in insuring portfolios against volatility and losses. Events such bank deposit losses in Cyprus in 2013, and fears about the fragility of the Chinese financial system, continue to give gold a place in some managers’ eyes. Recently, Pictet, the Swiss private bank, told this publication that it was looking at raising gold exposures but was waiting for circumstances to justify such a move.

Asia has been a region that, for reasons at times linked to distrust of paper money and a relatively short history of central banking, has had a strong affinity with gold for investment, as well as money, purposes. 

In February this year, Australia-headquartered Allocated Bullion Exchange held a soft launch of what it says is the world’s first global institutional electronic exchange for allocated physical precious metals, part of a trend in pushing transactions into the digital sphere. The full launch is expected in the third quarter of 2016. The firm said it broke fresh ground by offering the full trade cycle in terms of market participants and the offering of services from price discovery, trading facilities to storage and delivery. In May last year, among other industry developments, Gold Bullion International, a precious metals provider to investors and wealth managers, appointed Jammy Chan as head of business development for Asia to spearhead its expansion into China. 


ETFs
The WGC said that inflows to exchange traded funds totalled 364 tonnes during the quarter, the highest quarterly level since Q1 2009, from 26 tonnes in Q1 2015. 

“Gold found favour as a risk diversifier due to the negative interest rate environment in Europe and Japan, combined with uncertainty over the Chinese economy, anticipation of slower interest rate rises in the US and global stock market turmoil,” the WGC said.

Total bar and coin demand was 254 tonnes, marginally higher than the same period last year, it continued.

The report said weakness in price-sensitive markets was offset by strength elsewhere with 5 per cent growth in China and strong demand in the US and the UK, which grew by 55 per cent and 61 per cent respectively. 

In total, investment demand was 618 tonnes, up 122 per cent from 278 tonnes in the same period last year, igniting a rally in the gold price which appreciated by 17 per cent in dollar terms during the quarter.